Virginia Tech vs. Duke: Inside the Numbers

Well, here we are with only two (for now) games left on the Virginia Tech football schedule. The Hokies will invade Durham, N.C. on Saturday night and face a more than decent Duke Blue Devils team. I have watched more than a few of Duke’s ball games this year, and it’s pretty typical of a Manny Diaz-coached ball club. Solid defense. Limited mistakes. Reliable offense. This does not bode well for the visiting Hokies as they rely on turnovers and fluke plays to do anything offensively.

Duke enters the game with an identical conference record of 3-3. Overall, the Blue Devils are an impressive 7-3. They have already clinched a bowl game. The Hokies enter the tilt a .500 club. They are 5-5 overall, and a bowl appearance is highly in doubt.

What impresses me about Duke is that they generally hold serve. They are 4-1 in the friendly confines of Wallace Wade Stadium. The only time the Blue Devils lost this season at home was to SMU In OVERTIME! The wins include Florida State, UNC, UConn, and Elon. It’s not exactly murderer’s row, but it’s better than the Hokies' 3-2 advantage at home.

When you do a deeper dive into the numbers, I get a bit more concerned. Virginia Tech is ranked 12th in total offense in the conference. Duke is ranked number 15th in this vital metric. Breaking this down even further, Tech is in the cellar in the passing game.

Fifteen out of 17 teams, this leads me to believe Tech better be able to run it. That may be difficult against a Manny Diaz defense that will be ready for Bhayshul Tuten (if he plays). All signs point to the advantage of playing at home. After a miserable showing this season, it’s a hard ask for the Hokies fans to travel to Durham. That being said, it might be the only chance we have.