Virginia Tech FPI fall not as bad as expected & remainder of 2024 projections

After losing 38-31 in overtime at Syracuse on Saturday afternoon, the Virginia Tech football team avoided a major slide in the latest ESPN FPI rankings, only falling two spots to No. 30. The loss dropped the Hokies to 5-4 with three games remaining.

A season that began with high hopes is now quickly falling apart for several reasons. Virginia Tech has gone from a potential College Football Playoff crasher to fighting just to become bowl-eligible. Even if they do become bowl-eligible, they would likely have some players opt out after the way the season has gone.

Dropping only two spots is surprising and even more surprising is how high it is on Virginia Tech becoming bow-eligible. According to the FPI, the Hokies have a 94.4% chance of picking up a sixth victory to extend their season, but only 19.4% to win their final three games to get to 8-4. That seems like a tall order. However, ESPN’s projections give the Hokies a high chance of getting to six wins as they are favored in two of their final three games according to the predictor.

Virginia Tech has opened as nearly a touchdown underdog against Clemson this weekend at home. The question has to be asked, what is the Hokies' best chance to pick up a sixth win? Depending on injuries, winning at Duke will be tough and there is a very realistic possibility that when Virginia comes to Lane Stadium on Thanksgiving Weekend, both teams could be 5-6 and need it to win to extend their season, something that faced Tech last season in Charlottesville.

Clemson is coming into the game off a disappointing home loss to Louisville on Saturday night and QB Cade Klubnik has vowed to be better this week heading into the game in Blacksburg. Getting a sixth win will likely happen and wherever it happens won’t be too surprising considering how the season has gone up until now.