Calculating Virginia Tech football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

Expectations are high surrounding the Virginia Tech football team entering 2024. Head coach Brent Pry got a ton of retainment from last season's roster and along with some key transfers, it's easy to see why the Hokies are expected to take the next step, maybe a big one, in Year 3 of the Brent Pry-era.

Virginia Tech returns a slew of talented players on both sides of the ball including quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayhsul Tuten and if they stay healthy, there is no reason why they can't be a Top 5 rushing duo in the conference behind an experienced offensive line. Wide receivers Stephen Gosnell, Ali Jennings, Da'Quan Felton, and Jaylin Lane are also returning, as is tight end Nick Gallo who missed the entire 2023 season after suffering an injury late in camp.

On the defensive side, the Hokies got some key transfers along with retainment from Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Josh Fuga along the line and Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong in the secondary. All of that could lead to the best season yet under Pry, but could it lead to a College Football Playoff berth with the new expanded 12-team postseason? According to Kelley Ford, Virginia Tech will have to come close to running the table in 2024 to get an at-large bid.

The Kelley Ford Power Index released their projected regular-season win total for each team to get an at-large bid to the 2024 College Football Playoff and they project that the Hokies would need 11 wins.

Virginia Tech faces a doable schedule to try and get to 11 wins

Again, the schedule that Virginia Tech has is not as bad as it could be. There is no Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina State, or North Carolina this season. Their toughest ACC road games away from Blacksburg are Miami, Syracuse, Stanford, and a sneaky-tough Duke squad. Home ACC games include Georgia Tech, Boston College, Virginia, and Clemson, with the Tigers and Yellow Jackets being their two toughest on paper.

Virginia Tech's non-conference schedule includes road games at Vanderbilt and Old Dominion, with home games against Marshall and Rutgers. Their final game of that group is Rutgers at home and will be a battle between two teams with high expectations entering the season.

The path to 11 wins is there, but depending on what happens with other teams around the country, 10 might be enough to get Virginia Tech into the first 12-team Playoff. Looking at the schedule, if they are going to get to 11 wins (which is the same they have needed for Rutgers, the Hokies' Week 4 opponent) they would need to sweep their non-conference schedule and then have to win seven of eight ACC games. If they can find a way to sweep the non-conference schedule and take care of business in the ACC outside of Miami and Clemson and gain a split in those two games, then 11 wins is within reach.