Virginia Tech's basketball team (12-15, 7-9) starts its last home stand of the season tonight against Louisville. The Cardinals (21-6, 14-2) are big favorites and Tech will need more of what they showed last Saturday at Miami and less of what they showed at Boston College last week. Here's what to look for tonight if Tech is to pull off the upset.
Shooting (especially 3-point shooting)
Louisville has more overall talent in this matchup, and they're double-digit favorites. So Tech needs to fill it up from the floor. The Hokies are 6-6 in their last twelve games. In the six wins, they've shot 47.8% overall. In the six losses, 39.6%. And of course, the great equalizer in college basketball, why we see those exciting upsets in the NCAA, is the three-pointer.
Tech is 86th in the country in three-point percentage, while Louisville's three-point percentage defense is 203rd. Tech will do themselves a favor by getting good looks and hitting them. This is especially true given Louisville (45th in the nation in rebounding margin) is much more adept on the boards than Tech (136th).
Protecting the Ball
Another area to watch is turnovers. The Hokies rank 308th in the nation in turnover margin, while the Cardinals sit 73rd. And Tech is averaging a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio in its last six wins, and an irksome 0.87 A/TO in its last six losses. They had 16 assists and a season-low five turnovers in its last game at Miami. Tech will need more of that.
Bench Scoring
After scoring a season-low five points in Chestnut Hill last week, the Hokies' bench lit it up for 53 at Miami on Saturday. Jaydon Young (27 points), Ben Burnham (14) and Patrick Wessler (10) played big roles for Tech. With Mylyjael Poteat's availability tonight in doubt, Mike Young will certainly need his bench again. For his part, Burnham will certainly want to perform as his former coach at the College of Charleston is none other than Louisville's head coach Pat Kelsey.