Virginia Tech Football: A Look at the Hokies' Bowl Calculations

Needing one win to become bowl-eligible, the Virginia Tech football team will begin the quest to extend their season beyond Thanksgiving Weekend on Saturday night at Duke. At 5-5, the Hokies will look to do something they have yet to accomplish this season, beat a power-conference team on the road with a winning record.

Duke enters the game at 7-3 under first-year coach Manny Diaz, but on Sunday, Virginia Tech opened as a favorite to win in Durham. Considering all the injuries that the Hokies are dealing with and a ton of players who need a big week of practice to play, it’s surprising that Tech is a favorite.

Calculating Virginia Tech bowl chances

Virginia Tech gets two chances at winning No. 6 to officially become bowl-eligible (which is certainly not what the goal was when the season started on Aug. 31 at Vanderbilt). According to ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), the Hokies have an 89.7% chance of getting to six wins and a 45.5% chance of winning out against Duke and Virginia. Tech dropped one spot this past weekend to No. 33 during their bye week.

Injuries and other factors are going to go into making a final prediction for this weekend’s game at Duke but judging by history, until the Hokies win a road game against a power conference team with a winning record, it would not be surprising at all to have it come down to hosting the Cavaliers on Nov. 30. Both teams have a very good realistic shot at entering the game at 5-6.

Duke is No. 58 in the latest FPI and has a 27.9% chance of winning out against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, while Virginia is No. 68 and has a 39.5% chance of winning out against SMU and Virginia Tech. 

Virginia Tech has the numbers in their favor to get a sixth win and they have the best odds per the FPI to win out over their final two opponents. Now it’s just a matter of going out and doing it on the field.