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Virginia Tech Football: ESPN FPI paints a disappointing outlook for 2024

ESPN's FPI has the Hokies finishing around seven wins, which would be a disappointing season in a lot of people's eyes.

By Scott Roche

Nov 18, 2023; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) runs the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
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We are 10 days away from the Virginia Tech football team kicking off the 2024 season. Expectations are high in Blacksburg this season with the Hokies getting a ton of retainment from their 2023 team and mixing in some key transfers on both sides of the ball, fans are thinking big entering the season.

ESPN FPI is not as high on the Hokies as everyone is. In fact, they have Virginia Tech getting six wins, but not going much higher than that. ESPN gives Tech a 69.1% chance to get to six wins and if that's where they end up, it would be considered a disappointing season, to say the least. Let's take a look at ESPN's win predictor and see what they think of their schedule and how they might fare.

Virginia Tech wins projections using ESPN's predictor

ESPN does not have the Hokies as a runaway favorite in any games. Here are five games that ESPN gives them a 60% chance or more to win this season.

Sept. 14: at Old Dominion - Virginia Tech win probability 75.0%
Sept. 7: vs. Marshall - Virginia Tech win probability 74.6%
Nov. 30: vs. Virginia - Virginia Tech win probability 66.9%
Oct. 17: vs. Boston College - Virginia Tech win probability 63.0%
Oct. 26: vs. Georgia Tech - Virginia Tech win probability 60.1%

ESPN gives the Hokies more than a 50% chance of winning two games.

Aug. 31: at Vanderbilt - Virginia Tech win probability 57.7%
Nov. 2: at Syracuse - Virginia Tech win probability 55.5%

ESPN gives Virginia Tech less than 50% chance to win their five remaining games on the schedule.

Sept. 21: vs. Rutgers - Virginia Tech win probability 48.9%
Nov. 23: at Duke - Virginia Tech win probability 48.4%
Oct. 5: at Stanford - Virginia Tech win probability 44.4%
Nov. 9: vs. Clemson - Virginia Tech win probability 31.0%
Sept. 27: at Miami - Virginia Tech win probability 27.5%

Based off of these projections, the Hokies will finish with seven wins and that's a little too low. Eight to nine wins is much more of a possibility and a 7-5 finish would be a disappointing finish in a lot of people's eyes. Certainly, head coach Brent Pry has aspirations of a lot more than seven wins and it must be noted, those win projections will change every week. Football season is here.

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