Virginia Tech Football: ESPN FPI has Vanderbilt giving the Hokies a tight battle

Going into their season opener Saturday afternoon at Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech is nearly a two-touchdown favorite against the Commodores on the road according to DraftKings. A 13.5-point favorite, the Hokies return a ton of talent and production, while the Commodores are still considered rebuilding under Clark Lea.

If there is one thing that Virginia Tech can take away from the Week 0 action is that no matter how big of a favorite you are, it doesn’t mean that you’re going to find it easy. Just ask Florida State who lost in Ireland to Georgia Tech and SMU, who was a four-touchdown favorite at SMU, only to need 16 unanswered fourth-quarter points to avoid a major upset. ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) has the Hokies in for a battle in Nashville.

ESPN FPI has Virginia Tech in for a battle at Vanderbilt

At the time this article is being written, ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 57.6% chance to win at Vanderbilt and honestly, that seems too low. If this game were being played a year ago, then I could see the FPI being this close, but going into 2024? It should be higher.

Virginia Tech brings back nearly all of their production from last season, especially on offense. Quarterback Kyron Drones is back and poised for a big season with running back Bhayshul Tuten and four key wide receivers and a veteran offensive line that will be going up against a defense that finished 109th in defending the pass. 

Defensively the Hokies were good last year in the final two months but should be even better this season with retainment and transfer portal additions. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia could cause problems for Virginia Tech’s defense and the Commodores will be a desperate team in the opener to get a win in what is a big season for the program and head coach Clark Lea before they embark on a very difficult ACC schedule.

In the overall big picture, Virginia Tech has more talent across the field at each position and anything short of a win would be a huge disappointment. ESPN’s FPI of 57.6% should be higher in the overall big picture but as we found last weekend, games are won and lost on the field and ESPN thinks this will be a closer game than a lot of people think.