Megan Duffy has Virginia Tech at 11-4 after a couple of spirited road conference wins at Miami and Georgia Tech. Now that we're halfway through the season, and 15 games into Duffy's tenure in Blacksburg, we're getting a clearer picture of how this team competes and perhaps a better read on what the remainder of 2024-25 has in store.
Replacing a head coach and two of the greatest players in program history is a massive challenge. And this transition is unique in that Tech's offensive identity bears little to no resemblance to the Kenny Brooks squads of the past. Last year's offense ran nearly exclusively through Liz Kitley and Georgia Amoore. The duo's combined 41.6 points per game accounted for over 55% of the Hokies' production.
Not so this year. Scoring is more evenly distributed, with four players averaging in double figures and a fifth on her way (Lani White - more on her later). Nearly every contributor on this year's team is either new or taking on a larger or different role this season. And without the towering presence of Kitley, Tech needed to find a way to compensate for what promised to be a much less proficient rebounding team. Teams undergoing that much change can take time to gel.
Looking at the Hokies statistically in their wins versus their losses provides a window into what makes them tick:
3pt % | RB/G | Ast/FG | |
|---|---|---|---|
Wins | 40.9% | 34.9 | 59.2% |
Losses | 24.3% | 26.8 | 45.5% |
Without a 6'6" All American center, it's imperative that the Hokies shoot prolifically from outside, scratch and claw on the boards and distribute the ball well in their offense. Keep in mind that the average NET ranking of Tech's opponents was considerably weaker in their 11 wins (183) than their four losses (22), but the disparity above is striking.
The more compelling view, though, is how Tech has acclimated to Coach Duffy's system, so let's take a look at these same numbers in the last seven games (post-12/1/24) versus the first eight games (pre-12/1):
3pt % | RB/G | Ast/FG | |
|---|---|---|---|
Pre-12/1 | 35.0% | 33.6 | 52.7% |
Post-12/1 | 38.2% | 31.7 | 61.2% |
We see improvement in Three-point Percentage (modest) and Assists per made Field Goal (drastic) with some slippage in rebounds. Average NET ranking of opponents stiffened, from 163 early on to 114 most recently, so long range shooting and offensive flow are improving even with a more difficult schedule. This is great to see, and a testament to the players' growing comfort in their roles and Duffy's system.
Two notable players to call out in this growth: sophomore Carys Baker and junior Utah transfer Lani White. Both have seen their minutes edge up since the beginning of December, and their numbers below indicate their production and confidence are growing:
PPG | 3pt % | RB/G | |
|---|---|---|---|
Baker Pre-12/1 | 9.9 | 28.6% | 4.3 |
Baker Post-12/1 | 13.0 | 45.5% | 7.7 |
White Pre-12/1 | 5.9 | 33.3% | 2.8 |
White Post-12/1 | 12.4 | 53.3% | 3.3 |
If these two keep improving and the team continues to come together, it could make for an interesting back half of the season.
The Hokies are currently 45th in the NET. Their next four games are against Wake Forest (NET 114), Virginia (100), Louisville (42) and Pitt (154). Of that quartet, only Virginia sits in the top 100 in Rebounding Margin and Three-point Percentage Defense, so Tech has a real opportunity to rack up some wins and improve their NCAA resume.