Bet the Mortgage Volume 3: Cruise Control

After another successful week of my “Bet the Mortgage” wagers, I still haven’t received any envelopes in my mailbox. Arkansas was not able to win the game outright, but they did cover. We will return to Texas again this week as they host the Kentucky Wildcats.

The Wildcats have had a miserable season posting a 4-6 overall record. It’s not going any better in the conference. The Wildcats are a woeful 1-6. The game is in Austin, and a 3:30 kick to boot. Why in the hell would I take the Cats and predict a colossal upset? I highly value their one and only SEC win: at Ole Miss. I was able to watch that game in its entirety and was completely blown away by their performance. Now that game was noon kick, which I feel hurts the home team, but they controlled that game from the opening kick.

There are a couple of reasons in particular that this is my lock of the week. The spread currently sits at Kentucky +20.5. After watching Texas pretty closely this season, this is way too many points. Texas has had only one 100-yard rushing performance all season.

Quinn Ewers has had some seriously slow starts and likes to turn the ball over. Before you start throwing that Florida game in my face, remember that Florida was on its third-string QB, and the defense was decimated by injury. The only quality win Texas has all season is Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt. Sorry Hokies, I can’t consider Vanderbilt a quality win, or a loss.

The lack of a downfield passing attack for the Longhorns should turn this into a line of scrimmage. The last time Texas was in a physical contest, the Georgia Bulldogs pushed them all over DKR. Don’t be surprised if Kentucky pulls the upset, but with the points, it's a no-brainer.