Believe it or not, just five regular season basketball games remain for the Virginia Tech women. Year 1 of Megan Duffy in Blacksburg has gone better than expected considering all the turnover with the roster between players out of eligibility and the coaching change that saw Kenny Brooks leave for Kentucky after the Hokies’ second-round elimination in the NCAA Tournament last March.
Virginia Tech is squarely on the bubble regarding the NCAA Tournament next month, according to Charlie Creme of ESPN. The Hokies have little room for error over the final games, which begin Thursday night in Chapel Hill, N.C. against No. 12 North Carolina. How will things play out remains to be seen, but let’s give it a shot with the ceiling, floor, and prediction for Virginia Tech over the last five games.
Best Scenario: 20-9 overall, 11-7 ACC
This would certainly get the Hokies safely into the NCAA Tournament field if they won four out of their final five games. Let’s hope last Thursday’s loss at home to Syracuse doesn’t haunt them come Selection Sunday. It is a tough finish to the season beginning at UNC, but after that, there are home games with California and Stanford and road games at Boston College and Clemson.
Getting Rose Micheaux back would go a long way toward helping Virginia Tech get to 20 wins, but if they can shoot the ball the way they did at Virginia and defend the way they did, this is doable for Duffy and her team.
Worst Scenario: 18-11 overall, 9-9 ACC
If the Hokies are on the bubble now, this finish would require likely at least one win in the ACC Tournament to not sweat out Selection Sunday. Their trip to UNC is not going to be easy, but neither are games at BC and Clemson. Both of those schools might need that game to avoid missing the ACC Tournament.
After North Carolina on Thursday night, the Hokies get a bye and a week off before hosting California on Feb. 20. That could help Micheaux’s recovery from whatever her injury is.
Prediction: 19-10 overall, 10-8 ACC
You get the feeling that the Hokies regular season is going to end right in the middle of best and worst-case scenarios. A 3-2 finish would likely be good enough to get into the NCAA Tournament, albeit as part of the last Four in. That would mean them playing in the first couple of days to get a No. 6 seed somewhere.
Regardless of how things finish, Virginia Tech should avoid playing on the first day of the ACC Tournament before opening up on Day 2. If Duffy can get them into the NCAA Tournament, that would be a huge feat considering the small roster and lack of depth, something she will surely address through the portal in the off-season.