Virginia Tech heads into today's tilt against Wake Forest with a slightly surprising 3-3 record. Mike Young has managed to get more out of his roster than many expected and despite less-than-stellar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency measures the number of points scored per 100 possessions, and a number of points allowed per 100 possessions, respectively. In the college game, the general rule of thumb is that offenses achieving a 1.10 or greater number are in the elite conversation, while defenses below 0.95 are elite. A Net Officiency (Offensive minus Defensive) of more than +.10 denotes a relatively dominant team.
The Hokies so far have posted a 1.033 Offensive Efficiency and a 1.065 Defensive Efficiency, good for 183rd and 246th in the nation, respectively. Their Net Efficiency is -.032. Those numbers aren't terrific, obviously, but in looking at Tech's opponents for the balance of the season, there are still win opportunities out there, including today.
The general consensus is that the ACC is a little down relative to prior years, and efficiency numbers back that up. Only three ACC teams appear in the top 50 in Offensive Efficiency, and only three in Defensive. Meanwhile, five schools are ranked worse than 200th in OE and five are worse than 200th in DE.
Tech has fourteen games remaining in the regular season. A scan of their remaining opponents reveals what certainly will be a challenge, but not exactly a murderer's row:
Opponent | Net Efficiency |
|---|---|
Wake Forest | .065 |
@ Georgia Tech | .023 |
Clemson | .158 |
@ FSU | .112 |
@Virginia | -.038 |
SMU | .155 |
Notre Dame | .065 |
Virginia | -.038 |
@ BC | -.035 |
@ Miami | -.013 |
Louisville | .120 |
Syracuse | -.042 |
UNC | .091 |
@ Clemson | .158 |
Tech has five of its remaining fourteen opponents sporting a Net Efficiency of over .10 - Clemson twice, Florida State, SMU and Louisville. They've also got five with a negative Net Efficiency. Understanding that teams play differently at home versus on the road, our last chart shows Tech's efficiency at home versus on the road compared to their opponents as playing at home versus on the road:
Opponent | VT Net Efficiency - Opponent's |
|---|---|
Wake Forest | +.132 |
@ Georgia Tech | -.292 |
Clemson | +.044 |
@ FSU | -.352 |
@Virginia | -.303 |
SMU | +.020 |
Notre Dame | -.376 |
Virginia | +.314 |
@ BC | -.190 |
@ Miami | -.296 |
Louisville | -.072 |
Syracuse | +.234 |
UNC | +.099 |
@ Clemson | -.433 |
Comparing Tech at Home or Away to each of it's opponents in similar fashion reveals six games where the Hokies have the Net Efficiency advantage, starting with today's game against Wake. It also shows a handful of games where they'll likely struggle.
Tech isn't the team it was in recent years, but frankly, the ACC isn't quite the conference it was either. For the many who thought Tech wouldn't win more than a couple of ACC games this year, the 3-3 record is already a pleasant surprise, and the Net Efficiency metric gives Tech fans hope that they can rack up a few more wins.