Many Virginia Tech basketball fans likely worried ahead of the 2024-25 season that this campaign would be a struggle. With the team sporting a pedestrian 5-7 record exiting the non-conference season, those fears appear to have been warranted.
Digging into some interesting comparisons to better days reveals not just the disparity between this roster and prior ones, but a pretty clear reason why.
First, let's compare this year's edition of Hokie basketball to Mike Young's 2021-22 ACC Championship season and Buzz Williams' Sweet 16 squad from 2018-19. Here are the team's national rankings in a few key offensive statistics (all stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com):
Season | Scoring Offense | FG% | 3-Point FG% | Assists per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-25 | 292nd | 273rd | 175th | 215th |
2021-22 | 178th | 35th | 3rd | 90th |
2018-19 | 146th | 48th | 8th | 49th |
It's not a shock to see this team's offensive performance pale in comparison to two of the most successful seasons in history, but the drop-off is stunning nonetheless. Shooting, particularly long-range shooting, was elite in the ACC Championship and Sweet 16 seasons. It's anything but elite now. Check out the national ranking in assists as well, and file that away for a minute. For now, let's check out some core defensive statistics:
Season | Scoring Defense | FG% Defense | 3-Point FG% Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
2024-25 | 185th | 250th | 126th |
2021-22 | 24th | 170th | 113th |
2018-19 | 11th | 34th | 80th |
It doesn't get much better here, either, and the Hokies' relative futility in stopping other teams from scoring exacerbates the offensive futility shown earlier.
Mike Young's successful teams in the past have typically featured multiple ball handlers and multiple shooters, but also an offensive system with lots of movement and passing where everyone knows their role inside and out. Role clarity on defense is terribly important as well. The severe erosion in assists shown earlier is a pretty big tell in the overall malaise of this year's offensive system. It shows a stagnant offense that ultimately relies on individual effort. This is not a recipe for success, which leads to one final comparison:
Season | % Returning Minutes Played | % Returning Scoring |
|---|---|---|
2024-25 | 14.8% | 12.8% |
2021-22 | 60.2% | 65.6% |
2018-19 | 61.2% | 67.4% |
It's no secret that more experienced teams generally have an advantage over inexperienced teams. In Young's case, it's super important. It doesn't help that he lost a key guard immediately before the season in each of the last two years. Regardless, with so many newcomers, it's simply going take time for the players to gel and move more symbiotically on the court.
Expect to see improvement as the season goes along, and for the Hokies to be competitive in spots. Mike Young is too good a coach. However, the competition will also stiffen as we move into the ACC slate, so don't expect the competitiveness to result in a lot of wins. What you'll want to look for is statistical improvement and a product that passes the eye test more often, with the hope that Tech can build on that with more experience next season.